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Glance at Economic Indices for 1379

Bahar; Political, Social (Morning Daily)
Aug. 8, 2000
By: Yousef Mehnatfar

Summary: The Management and Planning Organization has published a report on the economic prospects for 1379. The projected figures in the report are on the assumption that no unexpected thing would happen in the political, economic and social areas.

UNEMPLOYMENT

The projection is creation of 3.8m jobs during the plan [the 5-year plan began on March 21]. This means about 765,000 jobs a year. In this way the unemployment rate at the end of the plan is estimated to be 10.5%.

The report shows the unemployment rate this year [ending March 20 2001] will rise to 16.4%, up 0.4 percentage points from last year. The overall participation rate is to rise to 36.4%, up 0.4 percentage points. The participation rate for women and men in 1379 is 62.1% and 10.1% respectively.

The productivity of the labor force is to rise to RIs 1.17m, up Rls 14,000 from 1377 [ended March 99]. The total work force in 1379 will be 18.5 million, with 1.7 million being graduates and 2.04 million being women. The breakdown of the work force in every sector will be as follows: 3.58m in agriculture, 4.73m in industry and 7.22m in service.

INFLATION

The inflation rate for 1379 is predicted at 19.9%, down 2.2 percentage points from last year. Regrettably the unofficial figures indicate an inflation rate higher than 19.9% for the current year.

BUDGET OF STATE COMPANIES

• The budget for the state companies in 1379 is Rls 183,000 bn, that is 66% of the total budget.
• The taxes and dividends paid by the state companies have been foreseen at Rls 3,000 bn and Rls 1,042 bn respectively.
• The investment by the state companies will be Rls 47,800 rials. It is predicted the state companies will receive Rls 6,119 bn foreign loans and Rls 29,480 bn domestic loans.
  
  TRADE RATIOS

Iran's exports are expected to be $ 16,429m in 1379 with the share of nonoil exports being $ 4,581m.

• This year the imports are expected to be $16,281 m.
• The nonoil exports under the Third Plan are foreseen at $ 34,773 m.
• The ratio of imports to the GDP is expected to rise to 12% this year, up 1.1 percentage points from 1378.
• The ratio of nonoil exports to the GDP in 1379 is foreseen at 3.4%, up 0.3 percentage points from last year.

According to a report by the Customs Administration the value of the nonoil exports in the first quarter of this year [ended June 20] was $ 621 m, down 23.8% from the corresponding period last year.

FOREIGN DEBTS

• The Management and Planning Organization has predicted that Iran's foreign debts this year will be $ 14,089m, down 1,972m from 1378.
• The medium- and long-term foreign debts will be S 8,006 in, down $ 822m from last year. The short-term debts will be $ 6,083 m, up $ 2,794m from last year
• The ratio of the medium- and long-term [foreign] debts to the total debts will be 56.8% and the ratio of the short-term debts to total [foreign] debts will be 43.2%.
• The ratio of the foreign debts to the GDP is 12.5%, up 1.5 percentage points from last year.
  
  

PRODUCTION

• 
  The average growth of the GDP during the plan has been considered 6%.
• The prediction is that the GDP growth this year will be 4.5% (in real terms), up 2 percentage points from 1378.