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Aftabe Emrooz (Morning Daily)
Wednesday Dec. 8, 1999
By: Aydin Namegh
Summary: Dr. Farhad Maher, a senior expert with the Agricultural Research
Planning and Economics Institute, has examined the role of manpower within the Iranian
agricultural sector in the coming years.
With the present trend of reduction of rural population, Dr. Maher predicts the rural population in the country to be reduced to 18.5 million in 2000, 17.5 million in 2004 and 16.5 million in 2021.
Text: Despite addition of approximately two million hectares to the area under irrigated cultivation and integration of small and scattered farms, enhancement of technology of improving harvesting resulting from higher education and expert manpower, are factors that lead us to expect no remarkable improvement in employment in the agricultural sector.
Dr. Farhad Maher, a senior expert with the Agricultural Research Planning and Economics Institute, says the addition of 400 thousand job opportunities as a result of expansion of the 2 million hectares of arable lands will surely be neutralized by improved manpower productivity.
He says although the yield or the volume of agricultural produce will increase
remarkably, such a boost will mostly generate employment in the agricultural side
occupations such as sale and transportation of agricultural products. As a result one may
expect increased employment in the fishing, animal husbandry, forestry and rangelands
rather than in farming activities which is faced with relatively high manpower surplus and
in which presently nearly 176 persons are working in each thousand hectare.
POPULATION CHANGE DURING THE THIRD PLAN
In this article we will examine the change of population in the country from 1996 to 2004
with an emphasis on the agricultural branch as compared with other branches of our
economy.
Population forecasts are based on two growth indicators, i.e. to say an average growth of 1.47 percent from 1991 to 1996 (Option 1) and an average growth of 1.8 percent predicted by the United Nations (Option 2).
The country's population in 1996 was far below the predictions made in the Third 5-year Development Plan. According to the latest statistics released by the Iran Statistics Center based on a census taken in 1996, the country's population reached 60.05 million persons i.e. 3 million persons below that predicted for that year. According to that census, of the total population in that year 61.7 percent were dwelling in urban regions and 38.3 percent in rural areas.
Based on average population growth from 1991 to 1996 approximately 36.547 million persons dwelt in cities and 22.703 million persons in villages. Meanwhile in that year (1996), 3.5 million persons were engaged in the agricultural sector which means that 20.44 percent of the total engaged population in the country were employed in the agricultural branch. Meanwhile the ratio of male and female population was 103 males against 100 females.
One economic and agricultural planning expert says based on these figures in which 1996 is considered the base year, population change is measured by two options from 1991 to 1996: One option is related to the Iranian forecast and the other option is suggested by the United Nations.
According to Option 1, the country's population in 1999 will rise to 61.919 million persons and according to Option 2, it will climb to 62.246 million. In fact according to Opinion 1 during the first year of the Third Plan (2000), the country's population will rise to 62.829 million persons and according to Option 2 will reach 63.366 million persons, i.e. 5 and 4 million persons less than the predicted figures.
"During the Third Plan according to Option 1, the country will have 66.3 million inhabitants whereas according to Opinion 2, the population will settle at 70.348 million persons and with the continuation of that trend until 2021 which is the target year for Islamic civilization, based on Option 1 the country's population will rise beyond 81.578 million and based on Option 2 to 91.102 million persons," says the expert adding that these figures are far lower than that predicted for 2021.
He says according to Option 1 some 42.231 million persons will be living in cities in 1999 and according to Option 2 some 43.046 million persons will live in cities in that year, and by March 20, 2000 the total rural population will be around 19.2 million persons.
Also during the first year of the Third Plan (2000) which aims at an economy minus oil income according to options 1 and 2, urban population is expected to rise to 43.711 million and 44.866 million persons respectively and in 2004 i.e. at the end of the Third Plan this figure will swell to 49.910 million and 52.848 million persons and eventually urban population will jump to 65.078 million persons based on Option 1 and 70.602 million persons based on Option 2.
With the reduction of rural population the inhabitants in villages are expected to fall to 18.5 million persons in 2000, 17.5 million persons in 2004 and less than 16.5 million person in 2021.
ACTIVE POPULATION AND THOSE ENGAGED IN THE AGRICULTURAL BRANCH
Based on existing statistics the working population in 1996 reached 15.405 million persons
which will rise to 16.586 million persons in 1999 according to Option 1 and to 16.806
million according to Option 2.
Regarding working population during the first year of the Third Plan, Dr. Maher says: "The active (working) population during the first year of the Third Plan (2000) will be 16.796 million according to Option 1 and 17.108 million according to Option 2. This figure will rise to 18.198 million persons in 2004 according to Option 1 and 18.993 million persons in the same year according to Option 2."
The specialist believes that should the first option realize, 22.026 million persons will be working in the country in 2021 and should the second option realize, 24.597 million persons will be engaged in the country in that year.
He says of the total active population in 1996 some 3.35 million persons were engaged in the agricultural branch which figure will be reduced to around 3 million persons according to both options.
"Thus the percentage of the people engaged in the agricultural branch versus total engaged population in the country in 1999 will sink by 18.08 percent according to Option 1 and 17.8 percent according to Option 2. That figure will decline by 17.86 percent in 2000 according to Option 1 and 17.53 according to Option 2, and that figure will slump to 16.1 percent and 15 percent by 2004," said Dr. Maher adding that in 2021 this ratio will decline to 14.62 percent according to Option 1 and 12.19 percent according to Option 2.
WOMEN AND AGRICULTURE
The percentage of women engaged in the agricultural branch is dubious and unreal. On the
one hand, women are present in all agricultural activities and on the other hand they are
not considered as engaged i.e. to say their labor is not sold to the market.
A review of female employment in the agricultural branch shows that during the First Development Plan only 210,000 women were engaged in that branch but thanks to their prominent role in the development of agriculture this figure rose to 221,700 persons by the end of First Plan which is not a remarkable boost. But with the start of the Second Plan women's engagement was increased so that by 1996, or during the second year of the Second Plan, approximately 294,465 women were engaged in the agricultural branch.
Based on the rise of women's engagement in the agricultural sector, Dr. Maher anticipates that although the number of employed work force will be thinned to 3 million persons, the number of women in that branch will remain the same that were engaged in 1997 i.e. 300,000 persons.