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Khordad (Morning Daily)
Jan. 23, 1999
Summary: In this interview with the daily, Rais-Dana, an economic analyst and political activist discusses the impact of the prevailing economic conditions, on the political atmosphere and the far-reaching implications involved.
Text:
Q: THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY HAS AN ENORMOUS IMPACT ON THE POLITICAL ATMOSPHERE OF A SOCIETY. COULD YOU GIVE US AN OVERVIEW OF THE EXISTING ECONOMIC CONDITIONS?
A: The norm is that statistics and various indices are obtainable through economic analyses. But, unfortunately, this precious information is made available to commentators very late.
For example, the figures pertaining to the national gross product, employment and inflation should be published every three months or even every month for that matter, so pundits can proceed with their scientific studies. However, this does not imply that economists should procrastinate in the absence of relevant data, since they can somewhat compensate for the shortcoming by considering other factors involved in the economic analysis.
Given the currently available information, I believe we are experiencing a very sensitive period of recession and inflation. In fact, we are not really far from a crisis.
Under the present circumstances, investment is down. Moreover, officialdom has also admitted that unemployment is a serious dilemma facing the nation. The actual number of unemployed nationwide is over 3 million, excluding the seasonal jobless and the university entrance exam applicants.
Furthermore, the statistics released by the Central Bank of Iran (CBI), reveal a hike in wholesale and retail prices. During the first 10 months of Mr. Khatami's presidency, the rise in prices was controlled by means of the contractionary policies set at the time, but now the prices have been going up again. Therefore, I believe that there is definitely a recession nationwide and it is no use denying it.
Q: GIVEN THE MIDTERM ECONOMIC PRESSURES, HOW DO YOU EVALUATE THE WAY THE LOW AND MIDDLE INCOME STRATA HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH PRESIDENT MOHAMMAD KHATAMI'S PLANS?
A: I personally believe that people voted for Mr. Khatami for two reasons. The youth and women were merely seeking more freedom. While, the labor force and farmers had two things in mind when they chose him: a decrease in the unemployment rate and an increase in their purchasing power.
I think a great deal of ambiguity has been created in relation to the public's choice (of president). The chief executive himself has admitted to economic problems while the head of the state Expediency Council, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, claims that the country simply does not have any economic problems. Furthermore, the judiciary chief, Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, has said that the economic problems are not so serious. Even I might not be really able to feel poverty, unemployment and inflation because of certain privileges I have in my life. Therefore, no one but people themselves can judge the issue.
People should be allowed to express their viewpoints freely and their representative should voice the problems facing their corresponding electoral districts through the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB). Street marches and the right to strike have to be recognized. In this way various issues could be openly discussed and the related officials can in turn provide solutions.
People should not be lied to. They have to know that our economy is unbalanced and unsystematic. The public has the right to be told that recession is an inherent characteristic of our brand of economy.
Q: IT SEEMS THAT THE SUBJECTS OF POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT, SECURITY, AND LAWFULNESS WHICH PRESIDENT KHATAMI RAISED, HAVE APPEALED TO A LARGE NUMBER OF PEOPLE. WHAT IS THE IMPACT OF THE ECONOMIC CRISIS ON THESE ISSUES?
A: Before I answer your question, let me point something out and clear up a misunderstanding. If we presume that World War I and II came about due to border conflicts and power struggles, then we have trapped ourselves in a vicious intellectual circle. The plain truth is that economic rivalry existed worldwide.
During the third world war which is also referred to as the cold war era, economic struggles have been launched to defeat the eastern bloc and several freedom movements. Even right now that world war IV, the war declared by capitalism in order to discover new markets, has started, it is absurd if we think that peace will prevail worldwide, without meeting public demands.
It is not any different inside the country. Political factions are the means to achieve the ends of political reform. But, they have to begin from ground zero and function as per the rule of law. There should be a system they can conform to. Party leaders have to be guided by public consensus so they can assume their real share of the pie. Their interference in the country's affairs should be proportionate to the political weight they carry.
Now, when there is a recession, despite the viewpoint held by some, it is essential that political parties increasingly emerge. In fact, under such circumstances, public participation is quite an effective measure to overcome the situation. It is also quite natural that at times of recession, economic problems make people suffer, but it does not necessarily imply that political reform should be hindered or freedom violated.
To the contrary, economic hardship can damage the political atmosphere only when political freedom and economic recovery are impeded. Let us recall that for the past 15 years, political reform has been interrupted under several economic pretexts or because the enemy is waiting to strike a blow, etc.. This is not justifiable.
Political reform is not to be separated from people's lives. Therefore, even when the country is experiencing recession, political factions should be active within the framework of law. In fact, in this way, officialdom is assessed by public opinion and it is to the benefit of the society at large.
Q: WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THE CURRENT POLITICAL ATMOSPHERE AND THE INSECURITIES?
A: Naturally, foreign investment is out of question if the present situation lingers. I believe that some power wielders do not wish to see foreign investment materialize. Not that they consider it harmful, but they find their own personal interests threatened thereby. In other words, there will be no room left for practicing exclusivity and profiteering when economic activities pick up under a popular ruling establishment. However, no matter what, political security and capital security are consequently hurt.
In the absence of political security and the right to strike, the guild unions and the labor force feels insecure. The blue collar workers have placed high hopes on the labor law which has constantly been subjected to attacks by specialists and officials. Certainly, such attitudes damage the well-being of the economy.
How can one brag about political dynamicism when a 70 year-old man and his 60-year-old wife do not have any security and are brutally murdered at their own residence? (Referring to the killing of opposition leader Dariush Forouhar and his wife by agents of the Intelligence Ministry). It is unacceptable to attribute all these insecurities to the Zionists or others. How could the Zionists penetrate into a system which boasts unmatched power and might?
I can tell you something quite frankly. Given the people I saw during the Forouhars' funeral, whoever committed the atrocious acts, struck the most fierce blow against the system. Now just imagine if the insecurities, plus the poverty and unemployment spread nationwide!
Given the various problems in our neighboring countries such as Turkey, Pakistan,..., one can forecast the type of future awaiting us!
Hence, national security is brought to the fore when political reform and/or participation are raised.
Q: WHAT DO YOU THINK IS THE REMEDY TO OVERCOME THIS ATMOSPHERE OF PESSIMISM WHICH ITSELF ORIGINATES FROM THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS?
A: I believe that people have to be assured that the government is seriously pursuing economic recovery. People, in turn, have to realize that fundamental measures are to the benefit of economic recovery, given the existing economic framework. People should be able to fully trust the government at all times. This way they can boost their toleration level and contribute to the well-being of the society at large. If people feel they have a say in the state affairs and their criticism gets heard, then problems will be a lot easier to handle.